newborn housing

The “Stork” Often Delivers More than a Baby

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An expanding family often leads to needing more space, but it also means more expenses.  That is why there is a growing trend for growing families to seek housing in less-expensive areas to get more.

A recent study by Zillow found that families with newborns are moving to lower-cost housing.  Expecting mothers were found to be more likely to move in any given year than women that are note expecting, despite people generally moving less these days. Among women ages 18 to 50, those who have had a baby in the past year are a quarter more likely than women who did not have a baby to have moved during that year.

Zillow listed the following as possible reasons to explain the data: seeking more space for a growing family; moving closer to family, whether for help with parenthood’s extra responsibilities or for quality time with the grandparents; seeking better job prospects to support a family; or planning ahead to settle in a preferred school district.

The analysis also found that not only do women with newborns move more, they also tend to move to areas with lower housing costs. Zillow found that in 26 of the 35 largest US metro areas, women who both moved and had a baby in the past year tended to move to areas with less expensive homes than where they came from.

The typical new mother moved to an area where homes are valued $11,500 less than where they moved from. Similar-aged women without newborns moved to areas where home values were only about $9,000 less than where they moved from.

Zillow’s analysis found the phenomenon more pronounced in the largest 35 metro areas. New moms from these areas moved to areas where median-valued were $20,100 cheaper than where they moved from. Women from these areas without newborns moved to areas with home values only about $6,300 cheaper.

What Happened to Rates Last Week?

Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) lost -50 basis points (BPS) from last Friday’s close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move higher compared to the prior week and actually hit their highest levels of 2018.

Overview:  MBS prices were under gradual pressure all week (higher rates) as we got a steady dose of very strong manufacturing and production data that showed good economic expansion (which causes rates to move higher).  But we saw a large spike in rates on Friday in direct reaction to very strong job growth and wage inflation which pushed mortgage rates to their highest levels of 2018.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs:
 Big Jobs Friday showed that our labor sector was doing very well with big job gains and an increase in wages.
Tale of the Tape:
October Non Farm Payrolls 250K vs est of 190K.
September Non Farm Payrolls revised from 134K down to 118K.
August Non Farm Payrolls revised from 270K up to 286K.
The more closely watched rolling three month average is now 218K.
Average Hourly Wages YOY moved upward from 2.8% to 3.1% which matched market expectations.
MOM, Average Hourly Wages increased by 0.2%.
The national average hourly wage is now $27.30
The national Unemployment Rate remained at 3.7% which matched market expectations.
The Participation Rate increased from 62.7% to 62.9%.
The October ADP Private Payroll report showed a huge jump of 227K new jobs compared to estimates of 189K. September was revised downward from 230K to 218K. Still, October saw the largest increase in 8 months. Small businesses added the fewest with only 29K as they struggle to find talent and/or match higher total compensation from larger corporations. In a separate report, the Q3 Employment Cost Indexincreased by 0.8% (QoQ) which is the largest quarterly jump since Q4 2017.

 Non-Farm Productivity in the 3rd QTR hit 2.0% vs est of 2.2%. Unit Labor Costs matched market expectations with a 1.2% gain.

Manufacturing: The October ISM Manufacturing report was a smidge lower than expected (57.7 vs est of 59.0) but still at a very high level. Internally, the ISM Prices Paid spiked upward to 71.6 vs est of 65.0. The October Chicago PMI was a little lighter than expected (58.4 vs est of 60.0) but still came in at a very robust level. Both Employment levels and Production rose at a fast pace.

What to Watch Out For This Week:

The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises.

It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets.  Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon.